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Summing It Up So what can investors expect for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024? Keep an eye on corporate earnings for guidance. “With a questionable econom ic outlook over the next 12 months, equity prices could come under pres sure if earnings decline,” Boswell said. “If the economy does slow, that would be good news for bond inves tors, as interest rates would decline, providing positive returns.” “From us,” said Kieffer, “inves tors can expect caution. We don’t believe that we’re out of the woods yet regarding several uncertain ties in the economy and markets. We don’t believe that we can ex perience unprecedented fed funds hikes, draining liquidity, and Russia participating in an active shooting war and have no consequences for risk-based assets. “Over such a short time period, such as 18 months, we would main tain a neutral asset allocation and be

The past year, said Richter, had produced events that led to a tighter banking environment, which in turn yielded more opportunities in private credit.” With economic activity slowing somewhat, investors are a but uneasy, Boswell said. “We believe investors need to re main resilient during periods of un certainty,” he said. “History shows that disciplined investors who work toward long-term goals can often withstand periods of market unrest and be in a position to take advan tage of investment opportunities that present themselves.” For those paying attention, this year has highlighted the case for in ternational diversification, Kieffer said, noting that the Europe and Far East Index had outperformed the S&P 500 by 200 basis points. In ad dition, “emerging markets (ex-China) has kept pace with the lofty returns from our own Standard and Poors Index,” he said.

prepared to take advantage of buying opportunities if the markets become turbulent,” he said. Richter said he expects the Fed and its forecasters to remain “data dependent” as economic data is re leased. “At some point will we see a more significant, delayed impact of rates going from zero to somewhere in the mid-high 5s?” he asked. “We’re like ly to see soft landing materialize, but risks remain, and volatility will re turn periodically.” Thus, it’s important to not just anticipate but expect speedbumps along the way, rates to stay elevat ed through mid-2024, and a greater focus returns to valuations with the S&P 500 trading at 19x forward earn ings, he said. One final cautionary thread, Rich ter said, binds anyone with exposure to an office real-estate market show ing signs of deterioration, a concern he said is shared by both “investor and bank.”

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