VALVE MAGAZINE Fall 2023

The State of the Valve Industry Today Is… Mixed

VMA and HI members participated in an interactive, two-day workshop to discuss the biggest challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for industrial valve manufacturing and the markets served.

OVERALL FLOW AND MOTION CONTROL PERSPECTIVE Regularly featured speaker and senior research analyst for Baird, Michael Halloran, predicts a volatile next 6-12 months, or a bit longer for flow and motion control-focused companies that are in his purview. His long-term view is still strong, but in the short- and medium-term, he says he’s less enthu siastic about returns. There have been several factors driving uncertainty for a few years, currently including: geo political issues with Russia and China; monetary policy; debt levels; a sluggish economic recovery in China post-Covid; student loan repayment resumption; globalization reversal, and the upcom ing U.S. presidential election. Halloran says he and his colleagues believe that companies are still working out what

In August, the VMA and the Hydraulics

the new post-Covid normal is for orders and inventory stocking, and he thinks deglobalization will continue as U.S. companies onshore more of their man ufacturing. Halloran also warns about government debt levels being histor ically high, and higher interest rates than we’ve seen in years, so companies may be holding back on investment while they wait for interest rates to dip again. For 2024, Halloran shared the trends he sees for the next year and the cycles ahead — what he calls more of the same. Order levels should normalize, but he thinks that inventory levels will be reduced. There will be pockets where a recession has more of an impact, with up to a 20% decrease in revenue possible, but he thinks we’ll be on the

BY HEATHER GAYNOR

Institute (HI) held their annual Mar ket Outlook Workshop for members in person for the first time since 2019. Attendees heard from a variety of global and national economic experts from key vertical markets as well as consultants, and like the last couple of years, the predictions are mixed and still being affected by the complete disruption of the pandemic. Overall, the experts don’t think we’re in for a bottoming out of the economy from a deep recession, but most do predict a softening and more contraction across industries. In this article, we’ll cover the highlights from some of the key sectors and verticals where industrial valves play a critical role.

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