Sheep Industry News November 2023

Market Report

DAVID ANDERSON, PH.D. Texas A&M University

Mixed Signals in the Market

A variety of factors have been affecting lamb prices, some positive and some negative. Recent weeks have shown some mixed signals for the direction of lamb prices. Lamb prices have, generally, been climbing during the last couple of months. Lighter weight lambs – whether designat ed for feeding or slaughter – have been rising. Feeder lambs weighing 60 to 90 pounds, averaged across Texas, Colorado and South Dakota markets hit $218 per cwt. during the first week of October. That is higher than both last year and the 2017-2021 average. After terrible feeding losses in 2022 and early 2023, lower corn prices are likely helping returns. Some profitable feeding opportunities are likely boosting some lamb prices. Lightweight slaughter lambs – averaged across those same markets – have been flat since early summer around $185 per cwt. In the Texas market, lightweight lambs – hair or wool – have been more than $200 per cwt., but below a year ago. Heavier slaughter lambs in the Sioux Falls, S.D., market continue to be above last year, at $202 versus $119 last year. Heavier slaughter lamb prices tend to decline season ally toward the end of the year. We might expect that sea

sonal pattern to hold because lamb and mutton production normally increases in the fourth quarter. This year, however, production remains below a year ago. While it should increase from the third to fourth quarters of the year, the amount is likely to remain smaller than last year. Since the first week of July, lamb and yearling slaugh ter is 2.1 percent smaller than last year. But, in the last four weeks, slaughter is actually running slightly ahead of last year. The key is weights. Lamb and yearling dressed weights are averaging 6.6 pounds lighter since July than during the same period last year. The combination of slaughter numbers and average weights means that lamb production is down 10.5 percent in the last three months and down 6.7 percent in the last month from the same period last year. Reduced production is helping prices climb. The amount of lamb and mutton in cold storage declined from July to August (the latest data). Stocks – at 26.6 mil lion pounds – are 2.5 and 9.6 million pounds below last year and the five-year average, respectively. Less stock in storage, along with tighter production, is a positive for the market. On the meat side, the cutout has increased slightly, about

$28 per cwt., in the last couple of months to $464 during the first week of October. It was $494 last year at this time. Shoulder and leg prices have advanced compared to a year ago while rack and loin – the middle meat – prices remain below last year. Reduced produc tion has not been enough to get wholesale prices above last year. USDA’s retail lamb featuring data has exhibited a lot of variability this year, but in September the average featuring price was $9.43 per pound compared to $9.73 per pound last year.

IMPORTS Lamb imports jumped in Au

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