Sheep Industry News March 2024

Market Report

TYLER COZZENS, PH.D. Livestock Marketing Information Center

SHEEP & LAMB INVENTORY

T he U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released its annual sheep and lamb inven tory statistics at the end of January. As of Jan. 1, USDA/NASS reported all sheep and lamb inventory to be just more than 5 million head – a decline of 1.9 percent (100,000 head) from 2023. This decline was larger than other annual declines seen in the last decade, which averaged less than 1 percent (-0.6 percent). USDA/NASS did revise the all sheep and lamb inventory as of Jan. 1, 2023, up by 110,000 head to just over 5.1 million head, resulting in a 1.3 percent increase from 2022’s inventory level. From a year ago, the top five states for sheep and lamb inventory all posted declines. All sheep and lamb inventory for Texas was 655,000 head (down 25,000), California was 500,000 head (down 30,000), Colorado was 400,000 head (down 15,000), Wyoming was 320,000 head (down 15,000) and Utah was 270,000 head (down 10,000). The total breeding flock posted a 1.9-percent (70,000 head) decline from last year to nearly 3.7 million head. Ewes 1-year-old and older decreased 60,00 head (-2 percent) from a year earlier to almost 2.9 million head. The lower breeding flock also resulted in a lower lamb crop, which fell 2.2 percent (69,000 head) to slightly more than 3 million head. Interestingly, the lambing percentage was 103.4 percent for 2023, which was below the 106.5 percent during 2022 and below the 10-year average trend of 106.4 percent. Market lambs were nearly 1.3 million head, down 24,000 head (-1.8 percent) from last year. The lower reported sheep and lamb inventory levels point toward tighter supplies for 2024. CURRENT SITUATION & OUTLOOK During the first quarter of the year, weekly sheep and lamb slaugh ter seasonally moves higher through February and March as the Easter holiday approaches. This year, Easter is earlier than normal on March 31. As a result, weekly sheep and lamb slaughter will likely see the seasonal rise occur slightly earlier than the historical pattern. Since the start of the year, weekly sheep and lamb slaughter data shows weekly levels have been well above 30,000 head per week with some recent weeks approaching 35,000 head per week, which is track ing similarly to the same period last year. Weekly lamb and yearling dressed weights have been tracking nearly identically to last year’s levels, ranging from 60 to 65 pounds. Weekly slaughter and dressed weights following a similar pattern to last year has resulted in weekly sheep and lamb production almost on par with the same period in 2023.

The weekly three-market average feeder lamb price (Colo., Texas and S.D., 60 to 90 pounds) continues to remain above $300 per cwt., more than $100 per cwt. above the same period last year. The same price strength is also occurring in slaughter lamb prices. Weekly national negotiated live slaughter lamb prices have ranged from $186 to $196 per cwt. since the start of the year, a $55 to $64 per cwt. im provement compared to last year. If prices follow the typical seasonal pattern, there could be upward potential ahead for slaughter lamb prices in the near term. USDA recently released December 2023 trade data, which final izes 2023 statistics. Total lamb imports for the year were 240 million pounds, down 14 percent (38 million pounds) from the prior year and the lowest since 2020. The decreased imports were due mainly to a 14-percent (28 million pounds) decrease in imports from Austra lia, which totaled 179 million pounds in 2023. Imports from New Zealand totaled nearly 59 million pounds in 2023, down 10 percent (6 million pounds) from a year earlier. Lamb and mutton in cold storage was 20.4 million pounds in December, down 23 percent from a year earlier and the lowest monthly stock level since January 2017. Lower lamb imports and lamb in cold storage are indications that supplies are likely to remain tight in the near term. Based on the lower sheep and lamb inventory levels and expected tighter lamb supplies in 2024, the Livestock Marketing Information Center is forecasting lamb production to be down 1 to 2 percent. Dressed weights will be an influencing factor on lamb production throughout 2024. The tighter forecasted lamb supplies in 2024 are ex pected to be price supportive. LMIC is forecasting annual feeder lamb and slaughter lamb prices to be about 3 to 6 percent above 2023 levels.

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