Sheep Industry News March 2023

drought related impacts which will drive production decisions. In 2024, sheep and lamb slaughter are forecast to decline less than 1 percent to just over 2.0 million head, which is based on the expectation that the breeding flock will decrease about 1 percent, but the lambing percentage will hold steady around 107 percent yielding a lamb crop just below 3.1 million head on Jan. 1, 2024. Feeder and slaughter lamb prices in 2023 and 2024 are expected to track closer to pre-pandemic levels. Feeder lamb prices (three-market average Colo., S.D., and Texas) are forecast to be $181 to $189 in 2023, with marginal improvements in 2024 to $181 to $193 per cwt. Slaughter lamb prices (national negotiated live) are forecast to range from $137 to $145 per cwt. depending on the quarter. Prices are expected to improve in 2024 with a range of $145 to $157 per cwt.

Wool Production Stabilizes, Prices Still Volatile

ERICA SANKO ASI Director of Analytics & Production Programs I n January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the annual sheep inventory report, which stated wool produc tion totaled 22.22 million pounds in 2022, down 1 percent – 227,000 pounds – from 2021. The decline was due to less sheep shorn at 3.17 million head as the average wool production per head was steady at 7.0 pounds. This was the smallest year-to-year decline in the number of sheep shorn and wool production since 2015. On a state basis, California was the top producer at 2.23 million pounds, followed by Wyoming (2.17 million pounds), Colorado (2.10 million pounds) and Utah (2.02 million pounds). Australian wool prices have been steadily improving since last summer, as the market is showing indications that manufactur ers are intending to or are close to returning to pre-pandemic levels. Market demand continues to favor finer, better-style wools with prices showing the most gains in recent weeks. Coarser wools are still struggling to find price support in the current market environment. Appreciation in the Australian dollar in recent months has had an impact on American wool prices, however, the U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong in 2023. Since the start of the new year, the Australian Eastern Market Indicator has climbed 67 cents kg clean – 5 percent – with prices

across all micron categories except for 26 micron posting notable gains. In January, the Australian EMI averaged 1,342 cents kg clean, 4 percent lower than the prior year but 10 percent stron ger than in 2021. In early February, the EMI reached A$6.35 per lb. (US$4.43 per lb.), the highest weekly price since the first week of July of last year. Prices for the finer wool market – 17 to 21 microns – in Janu ary were a bit mixed, with prices for 17 to 19 microns below a year ago while 20 micron and 21 micron wools posted 4 percent year-over-year gains. The supply side is most likely supporting the 21 micron wools since Australia is not a large producer of these wools. Prices for finer wools have been gaining in value as the season has progressed. While the market for coarser wool has seen some price increases recently, it is still struggling as there is not much demand for these wools, with 26 to 29 microns averaging 20 percent lower than last January. It is still a challenge to predict the wool market given the eco nomic environment. The current demand outlook is optimistic and is providing support to the wool market. If demand contin ues to improve, prices should increase further. However, there is still much uncertainty in the market as inflation rates and interest rates remain high, while high energy prices in some markets – such as Europe – continue to have an impact on the wool market.

8 • Sheep Industry News • sheepusa.org