Sheep Industry News June 2025

Market Report

TYLER COZZENS, PH.D. Livestock Marketing Information Center

Easter Holiday Recap

W ith the Memorial Day holiday – the unofficial start to the summer grilling season – now behind us, let’s take a step back and look at the market dynamics that occurred leading up to and following the Easter holiday. This year, weekly lamb and yearling slaughter averaged nearly 41,000 head per week during the four weeks leading up to the Easter holiday, which was on April 20. For comparison, weekly lamb and yearling slaughter last year averaged nearly 40,000 head per week during the four weeks leading up to the Easter holiday, which was on March 31 – three weeks earlier than this year. Following the Easter holiday this year, lamb and yearling slaughter decreased to levels that were seen prior to the holiday, which were in the mid-30,000 head per week area. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Marketing Service releases a Weekly Retail Lamb Feature Activity report detail ing retail prices for various lamb cuts, the feature rate, activity index, along with market highlights. As would be seasonally expected, the feature rate and activity index saw a jump higher in the week leading up to the Easter holiday. The Market Highlights in the April 18 report found some of the sampled retail stores offered a prepared Easter dinner that featured a leg of lamb. The report further noted that, “servings ranged from 6 to 10 and meal prices ranged from $179.99 to $205.” SUPPLY DISCUSSION Looking into the summer months, weekly lamb and yearling slaughter has already started to trend seasonally lower. Year-to-date

through April, weekly lamb and yearling slaughter has tracked about 4 percent above the same period in 2024. Throughout the same period this year, weekly lamb and yearling dressed weights have been averaging about 64 pounds, which is 1 percent above last year. Com bining both the 4-percent increase in slaughter and the 1-percent increase in dressed weights has led to a 4.1-percent rise in year-to date lamb production. While lamb production has been tracking above year-ago levels, lamb and mutton imports totaled 72.6 million pounds during the first quarter of 2025, a 2-percent increase from the first quarter of 2024. The higher production and imports, so far, through the first few months of 2025 do not appear to be backing up in cold storage. In March, lamb and mutton in cold storage was 20.7 million pounds, which was a decrease of 8 percent from the same month last year and far below the five-year average for cold storage stocks which are typically around 28 million pounds. As a side note, when it comes to data, keep in mind that there is a one- to two-month lag in the release of trade and cold storage data from USDA, so any potential effects on trade flows or cold storage stocks resulting from the fluid dynamics surrounding tariffs will take time to be seen in the data. PRICES & OUTLOOK Feeder lamb prices (Three-Market Average, Colo., S.D. and Texas) have been mixed through April and into May but are generally track ing at levels similar to a year ago. Looking ahead, the seasonal price pattern for feeder lambs would be to move generally lower during the summer months. The Livestock Marketing Information Center is expecting feeder lamb prices to track in the mid-$200 per cwt. range for the second quarter.

Recently, weekly fed lamb prices (national negotiated live) have been showing a weaker tone compared to last year. During April and into the first part of May, fed lamb prices have been ranging from $169 to $174 per cwt. with an average of $172 per cwt. A year ago, during the same period, fed lamb prices averaged $212 per cwt. with a range of $206 to $217 per cwt. The pressure in prices is likely due in part to higher year-to-date lamb production that was discussed earlier. During the first quarter of 2025, the fed lamb price averaged $170 per cwt., down 12.3 percent from last year. The typical seasonal pattern for fed lamb prices would be a slight increase in fed lamb prices in the second quarter

6 • Sheep Industry News • sheepusa.org