Sheep Industry News June 2023

Market Report TYLER COZZENS, PH.D.

Livestock Marketing Information Center

PRICES STEADY, LAMB PRODUCTION FORECAST TO DECLINE SLIGHTLY

N ow that the Easter holiday has passed, that means sum mer is quickly arriving. The outlook for lamb production is expected to decrease in 2023 as decreased weights more than offset a marginal increase in lamb slaughter levels. Feeder and slaughter lamb prices have been holding strong through the spring time and are expected to hold steady for the remainder of the year. SHEEP & LAMB PRODUCTION First quarter production statistics showed a 6.2-percent increase in commercial sheep and lamb slaughter over last year to 516,400 head. The increase compared to last year is partly due to the timing of the Easter holiday, which came earlier than normal on April 9. Weekly lamb and yearling slaughter once again showed a strong rally leading up to Easter. The four weeks leading up to Easter averaged just more than 40,000 head per week with a range between 38,703 to 41,614 head. Last year, the four weeks leading up to Easter saw weekly lamb and yearling slaughter average about 38,000 per week. As slaughter levels ramped up, weekly dressed weights started to decline quickly as lambs were pulled through the supply chain for slaughter. Through the first quarter of the year, lamb and yearling dressed weights averaged 65.3 pounds versus 67.7 pounds last year – a decline of more than 3 percent. Weekly data shows lamb and year ling dressed weight declined in the weeks leading up to the Easter holiday and reached a low of 59 pounds the week of Easter. Since the low, weekly lamb and yearling dressed weights have risen marginally, which is the typical seasonal pattern for this time of

year. The decline in dressed weights more than offset higher slaugh ter levels during the first quarter, which led to a nearly 5-percent increase in commercial lamb production to 33 million pounds. The Livestock Marketing Information Center is forecasting commercial sheep and lamb slaughter to be up marginally by half a percent for 2023 to almost 2.1 million head. Dressed weights are expected to moderate lower leading to an annual decline of 3 percent for commercial lamb production to 127.6 million pounds for 2023. LAMB & MUTTON TRADE March trade statistics were recently released and first quarter to tals for the year show lamb imports were down 5.5 million pounds – 8.5 percent – to 59.2 million pounds. First quarter imports declined from both Australia and New Zealand. Imports from Australia during the first quarter were 42.6 million pounds, a 7.5-percent or 3.4-million-pound decrease from the same period last year. Ship ments from New Zealand fell 2.4 million pounds – 13.5 percent – to 15.6 million pounds in the first quarter. Mutton imports declined 17.2 percent during the first quarter to 19.5 million pounds. Lower mutton imports were due to a 21.1-per cent decrease in shipments from Australia to 16.9 million pounds. This more than offset a 53.1-percent increase in mutton imports from New Zealand, totaling nearly 2.5 million pounds. Annual lamb and mutton imports are expected to moderate lower about 9 percent for 2023 to 327 million pounds. Australia will be the main factor influencing U.S. lamb imports. The most recent forecast available for Australian lamb production is pegged to be a record, rising 3.5 percent above 2022, which was the prior record. Higher production will lead to larger exportable lamb supplies for Australian lamb. Exchange rates will be a factor in determining Australia’s competitiveness to export lamb. The Australian dollar has moved higher compared to the U.S. dollar, making Australian lamb more expensive or less price competitive. LAMB & MUTTON IN COLD STORAGE The most recent data available for lamb and mutton cold stor age stocks is for the month of March. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported lamb and mutton stock levels at 25.4 million pounds, down 11 percent or just over 3 million pounds from the prior month. Compared to a year ago, stock levels are up almost 6 percent

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