Sheep Industry News December 2024

Market Report

TYLER COZZENS, PH.D. Livestock Marketing Information Center

Dry Conditions, Higher Supplies & Steady Lamb Count

I n recent months, range and pasture conditions have deteriorated as a lack of moisture has led to a growing area of dryness and drought across a large portion of sheep and lamb production regions in the United States. As of early November, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported almost 88 percent of the United States was experiencing dryness or drought, compared to 55 percent at this time last year. The last week of October, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that 51 percent of domestic range and pasture had a condition rating of poor and very poor, which is the worst condition in more than two years. Although range and pasture conditions have recently deteriorated, alfalfa hay and other hay prices continue to track lower. In September, the U.S. alfalfa hay price was reported at $172 per ton and the other hay price was $140 per ton, which were the lowest prices since early 2021. SHEEP AND LAMB SUPPLIES Weekly lamb and yearling slaughter continue to track above year ago levels with the year-to-date total through mid-November up 4 percent from the same period in 2023. Mature sheep slaughter – year to-date – is up 10 percent from the previous year. The higher lamb and yearling slaughter combined with the increased mature sheep

slaughter has led to a 4 percent increase – more than 55,000 head – in year-to-date weekly sheep and lamb slaughter through mid-November. As weekly slaughter tracks above year-ago levels, the year-to-date average weekly lamb and yearling dressed weight is about 1 percent below – less than 1 pound – the same period in 2023. The higher pace of weekly slaughter has more than offset the decline in dressed weights, resulting in year-to-date lamb and mutton production up 3 percent from the previous year. Although lamb and mutton production are tracking higher than a year ago, cold storage stocks indicate that supplies continue to remain below the previous year. September’s cold storage stocks were down 4 percent – 1.2 million pounds – from the same month last year. In 2024, lamb and mutton in cold storage has been below 2023 levels every month so far this year, and well below the five-year average. Lamb and mutton in cold storage tracking below year-ago levels is an indication that the higher production levels are not building up in cold storage. LAMB IMPORTS Through the first three-quarters of 2024, lamb imports have totaled more than 234 million pounds, which is an increase of 35 percent – 60 million pounds – from the same nine-month period in 2023. Cur rently, 2022 holds the record for lamb imports at 278 million pounds.

As a comparison, through the first nine months of 2022, lamb imports totaled 211 million pounds. If monthly lamb imports continue to track above 20 million pounds during each month of the fourth quarter, total lamb imports for 2024 could approach 300 million pounds, which would be a new record. Although lamb imports are higher year to date, and production is above year-ago levels, the lower cold storage inventory levels indicate that demand appears to be strong, which is help ing to pull product through the supply chain.

PRICE DISCUSSION The national lamb cutout value has

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