Sheep Industry News August 2025

Market Report

David Anderson, PH.D. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service

Summertime Seasonality Dominates Market

S pring lamb markets exhibit a strong seasonal component and that is true of summer markets, as well. Lamb produc tion tends to decline from Spring highs. Live lamb prices exhibit different seasonality depending on weight. So far, it looks like this year is following some normal seasonal patterns. Lamb Production Weekly average lamb production has declined from about 2.6 million pounds in April to 2.2 million pounds in June. That decline is not all that different from the average over the last few years. But the level of lamb production this year has been larger than last year. Using weekly lamb production data, production in the second quarter of the year was 7.7 percent greater than last year. It’s worth remembering that Easter was in April, part of the second quarter of 2025 and in March 2024. Production in the first quarter exceeded that of 2024 by about 2.3 percent. Heavier dressed weights have boosted production for most of the year. Weekly average weights have exceeded those of last year by as much 8 pounds so far this year. Trade Lamb imports have been an important topic for many years. For the year through May, lamb imports are about 1.2 percent smaller than last year. Reduced imports in February and May of this year have offset greater imports in January and April. Lamb imports in May totaled 22.4 million pounds, the fewest for a May since 2023, and a 20 percent decline from May 2024. While the

imposition of tariffs may play a role in reduced May imports its worth remembering that imports tend to decline, seasonally, after Easter. Other factors play a role in imports in addition to tariffs. While the U.S. dollar has gained in value versus the Australian cur rency since 2021, the dollar has weakened in value over the last couple of months. A weaker dollar would work to reduce imports. Another factor is the price difference between U.S. and Australian lamb leg prices. The spread between them has narrowed in recent months reducing the incentive to send product to the U.S. Other good news on the trade front is that lamb and mutton exports have increased. U.S. lamb exports totaled 223,000 pounds in May, the most for any month since December 2019. The 93,000 pounds exported to Canada in May were the first for any month since November 2014. The 121,000 pounds exported to Mexico were the most for any month in several years. Mutton exports in May increased to their largest level this decade. The combination of increased domestic production and re duced imports indicates that total lamb supplies have been just slightly ahead of last year. Prices Prices are tending to follow seasonal patterns in light and heavier weight slaughter lambs, although with some notable points. For lighter weight, 60–90-pound, slaughter lamb prices have experienced some striking volatility. Over the May to June period average prices dropped by a third, going from $294 per cwt. to just under $200 per cwt. over a six-week span. The decline left average prices below those of a year ago. Heavier weight slaughter lambs indicate a different picture. From the Sioux Falls, SD market, prices have been about the same as a year ago throughout the year. Prices climbed to their seasonal mid-year peaks, hitting $242 per cwt. in recent weeks before de clining by more than $20 per cwt. to begin the second half of the year. The national negotiated live lamb data has painted a different picture of lamb prices. Since the first of the year prices in that re port have languished well below 2024, trading between $160 and $180 per cwt. until June when they jumped to $200 per cwt. In lamb meat markets, the cutout has traded below that of 2024 all year. In June, the cutout set a new low for the year of $452 per cwt. The was the lowest cutout value in at least 18 months. Within the cutout, boxed lamb shoulder and loin prices have been about

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