Sheep Industry News April 2025

Market Report

CHARLES MARTINEZ, PH.D. University of Tennessee

Surging Prices

W hen I last wrote this market update in January, market sig nals were sideways, there were some positives, and some negatives, depending upon who was buying and who was selling. Since then, there has been an administration change and tariff talks/discussions every week, but prices throughout the supply chain are surging. RETAIL In the most recent U.S. Department of Agriculture retail report, the feature rate was around 10 percent. The feature rate is the amount of sampled stores advertising any reported item during the current week, expressed as a percentage of the total sample. Thus, approximately 10 percent of stores are featuring lamb products. The national activity rate in the first week of March was relatively unchanged compared to the year, at 2,753. The activity rate is a measure of the absolute frequency of feature activity equal to the total number of stores for each adver tised item (i.e. retailer with 200 outlets featuring three items has an activity index of 600). The Northeast region (Conn., Del., Mass., Md., Maine, N.H., N.J., N.Y., Penn., R.I. and Vt.) and the Southeast region (Ala., Fla., Ga., Miss., N.C., S.C., Tenn., Va. and W.V.) both have higher featuring rates of 18 percent and 22.6 percent, respectively. In the Northeast region, the highest valued products in early March were fresh Halal rib chops averaging $27.99 per pound. Whereas in the Southeast region, the highest valued products were fresh loin chops averaging $8.99 per

pound. Additionally, the Southeast region had the highest activity in dex of 1,485. With Easter coming, I would expect the feature rate and activity rate to start increasing. WHOLESALE In the first week of March, the lamb cutout ended at $459.91 per cwt., which is $11.14 per cwt. lower compared to a year ago. Com pared to the previous five-year average (2019 to 2023), prices in early March were $32.35 per cwt. higher. Through the first nine weeks of 2025, the cutout averaged $459.03 per cwt., which is $11.51 per cwt. lower than last year, and $28.30 per cwt. higher than the previous five year average. While the lamb cutout is lower than last year prices remain steady, which indicates steady demand from downstream participants. When looking at primal cut values, boxed lamb rack (8-rib light) prices have been surging. Last year, racks topped out at $1,159 per cwt. in September and November. Through the first nine weeks of 2025, prices trended upward from $1,118.21 per cwt. at the start of January, to $1,186.12 per cwt. in the first week of March. At $1,186.12 per cwt., rack prices are $54.12 per cwt. higher than last year and $73.69 per cwt. higher than the previous five-year average. SLAUGHTER When looking at supplies, weekly lamb and yearling slaughter has been averaging 32,540 head per week this year. That puts this year at

an average of 810 head per week higher than last year, and relatively the same as the previous five-year average (32,270 head per week). A key difference this year compared to last year is that the weekly slaugh ter volume was increasing at this time last year at approximately 34,000 head in anticipation of Easter (March 31, 2024). As mentioned in previous months, slaughter dressed weights last year (63.3 pounds) and this year (63.8 pounds) are lower compared to the previous five-year average (67.3 pounds). By taking 2025 weekly slaughter weights and average slaugh ter numbers, total lamb and yearling production is up approximately 3.2 percent through early March compared to last year. PRICES Feeder lamb prices in the three-market average

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