MT Magazine November/December 2022

MT MAGAZINE

NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2022

27

Navigating Through Economic Crossroads Charting Where We Have Been and What May Lie Ahead.

BY CHRIS CHIDZIK PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST

In early October, AMT staff and members descended upon St. Louis with a sense of anticipation and caution, much like the stream of settlers who had begun their journey west centuries before. Unlike the settlers, St. Louis was the endpoint of their travels: the location of the annual MTForecast conference. After a year of mixed signals from economic data and a summer of pessimistic outlooks, everyone was eager to hear the story behind the data and the expectations for the future. This article will look at some of the unique economic conditions leading up to the conference as well as a few key insights shared by the economists on the likely direction ahead. To better understand the likely paths before us, it is first critical to review the economic roads that brought us to this point. The first half of 2022 was met with an ominous economic signal: two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product (GDP). Since GDP measures the total output of a country, this generally signals that its economy is in recession. Unlike most recessions, this period was defined by an unusually low unemployment rate and high consumer demand. Economists at MTForecast pointed out that the observed GDP contraction was more the result of supply challenges than the demand-driven