Ingrams September 2023

economy has the potential to stagnate as we continue to contend with cycles of rising costs, supply chain volatility, and international instability.” At Security Benefit in Topeka, Doug Wolff said his retirement ser vices giant is “a conservative company, and we prepare for many different eco nomic scenarios. Throughout our his tory, we’ve endured market upheavals, natural disasters, global political cri ses, and two pandemics. In fact, one of our best years of financial performance occurred in 2020 because we were nimble enough to pivot.” The fact is, in an era of high infla tion, those in a position to influence economic outcomes are in a delicate position. Regarding the Fed’s ability to orchestrate a soft landing, Commerce Bank Kansas City’s Kevin Barth said, “I am cautiously optimistic, but we must remember that the cost of taming inflation is to slow down economic activity by raising interest rates.” That’s in large part why Mike Rain en expects a move downward in the stock market by the end of this year “because fundamentals are showing weakness,” he said. “The office market is going to trigger large defaults and will cause balance-sheet disruptions in banks and insurance companies. This could trigger a LOT of ugly.” Ken Block of Block Real Estate Ser vices knows exactly what Rainen is talking about in commercial realty as enormous levels of federal spending fuel inflation on one end, while on the other, the Fed is ratcheting interest rates up to control it. “As they attempt to lower inflation, the recession risk rises and becomes more likely,” Block said. “I feel we have at least a 60 percent chance of a recession in 2024, but we also have a continuing risk of high inflation.”

“I believe the next big thing is to make Kansas City a national hub for medical research and advanced medical care.” — BOB PAGE , PRESIDENT/CEO, THE UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS HEALTH SYSTEM

town Lenexa, said he believes that “the anticipated 2023 recession has been delayed into 2024 with aggressive monetary policy, but all indications are there will be continued economic stress during 2024, with a recession likely. Current federal debt levels (should) make it nearly impossible to use fiscal policy successfully. My guess is there is a 60+ percent chance of a recession during 2024—whether it will be a soft landing remains to be seen. That said, it’s an election year; nothing will surprise me.” Associate Wholesale Grocers’ CEP David Smith, wrapping up a long ca

will be trending between now and the end of next year, and you’ll get just as diverse a range of opinions. Some sec tors are feeling a tightening right now, but for the most part, these executives say they are charging ahead with plans for growth and finding the talent that will fuel it. Dimensional Innovations’ Tucker Trotter isn’t about to let any gloomy forecasts interfere with his design team’s work. “I can only worry about what we can control, so I try not to focus too much attention on those concerns; they are always out there,” he says. “But I’ve always believed there is more than enough work for our team regard less of what is happening in the world.” Even the white-collar offices of law firms are left to ponder the direction of the economy. “Like most businesses, we have been preparing for the possibility of an economic downturn,” said Allison Murdock, managing partner at Stin son, LLP. “This year, we substantially deepened our bench in key practice ar eas and expanded our geographic foot print in response to our clients’ needs. We have been strategic in our growth, and by having diversity in our practice areas, we are well-positioned to weath er economic shifts.” Brad Lager of rail-infrastructure gi ant Herzog Enterprises is non-plussed by the talk. “I have given up trying to predict when the next economic reces sion will occur,” he said. “While we have continued growth in all of our op erating companies and their respective divisions, there are others in our indus try that are experiencing a reduction in volumes that would reflect a recession is near.” Mike Boehm, a banker by day but the long-time mayor who helped orches trate the renaissance of a new Down-

“We need to have confidence that there will be guardrails to curtail the effects of economic down turns and provide equitable access and opportunity for everyone.”

— DEANGELA BURNS-WALLACE , CEO, KAUFFMAN FOUNDATION

KC Street Car reer in grocery distribution for the re gion’s second-largest private company, said that “from a technical recession with two-quarters of GDP declines, I would place the odds at 2 in 10. How ever, many of the shopping behaviors of consumers in our stores already fit the historical metrics for recessionary buying patterns. This means we are already acting and managing our busi ness as though we are in a recession.” Tyler Nottberg of U.S. Engineer ing said he’s seen evidence of that, as well. “I read a Bloomberg article re cently that said more than a third of Americans already believe we’re in a recession because of the strain on their budgets,” he said. “So, regardless of whether it meets the technical defini tion, people are still feeling the pain of significant inflation. Ultimately, the

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September 2023

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