Ingram’s September 2022

What Lies Ahead . . . Influential leaders sound off on the economy, the talent squeeze, and Kansas City’s Next Big Thing.

I f you wanted to pick the brains of people in leadership roles who have been through multiple downturns in their careers, it’s hard to imagine a more qualified and experienced group in the Kansas City region than members of the Ingram’s 250. Do the math for a second: If each of them had just 20 years in a leader- ship role—and most have considerably more than that—you’re talking a collec tive 5,000 person-years of business expe rience. The interesting thing about their col- lective experiences is the diversity of business sectors they represent. Some hail from firms that do quite well in downturns; some are experiencing downturns as leading or lagging indica tors of the economy’s overall direction. No one experiences boom or bust quite the same. A downturn will affect banking and wealth management dif ferently than it will manufacturing, the travel and hospitality sector, or vehicle sales. With the 24/7 business networks, news channel talking heads, general and niche publications fawning over every word from the Fed on interest rates and trying to read through the tea leaves, business leaders have been inundated in 2022 with talk of a recession coming this year, or next. Does Kansas City’s business leader ship agree? We put the question to each of those recognized in the 2022 Ingram’s 250, and—predictably—heard a wide range of opinion. We also tapped into

some thought leadership about how they are preparing their organizations for the unknowns that might be coming, and the potential impact on operations and cus tomer service. As a technical matter, some point out, the question has already been an swered: “We’re in a recession,” declares Philip Sarnecki of RPS Financial Services.

he said. “We all survived the pandemic (financially) better than we expected, but unfortunately, I believe, it’s ultimately going to catch up with us.” Brad Lager’s Herzog Enterprises in cludes a rail division that has been part of the Downtown streetcar line work. “There is,” Lager says, “a strong argu ment that we are already in a recession

“There is,” Lager says, “a strong argument that we are already in a recession and if not, it is very likely within the next year.”

— BRAD LAGER , CHAIRMAN & CEO, HERZOG ENTERPRISES

From his vantage point as a general contractor, McCownGordon Construc tion CEO Ramin Cherafat says, “I do be lieve that we are actually now currently in a recession and that will continue for the next six to 12 months. We have yet to see a major impact in our pipeline, our backlog is near record levels and our pipeline remains very strong, in fact it’s at a record high.” That being said, Cherafat believes that a decade of loosemonetary policy has contributed to record levels of liquidity, all of which is now constricting. “With both interest rates rising, combined with shrinking money supply/ constrained monetary policy, I believe, we are in for some choppy waters over the next year,”

and if not, it is very likely within the next year. Over the last 18 months, we have focused on understanding what we do very well and doubled down on those activities, while ending or greatly restructuring the things that we did not do as well.” Others say that if a full recession comes at all, it likely will be mild; there’s a great deal of faith in the Fed’s ability to engineer a soft landing. Jim Rine, with UMB Bank, the re gion’s biggest measured by assets, is closer to that other end of the spec trum. “I believe it’s somewhat likely, but don’t think it will be prolonged,” he said. “We’ll stay informed on influenc ing factors such as the economy, proac

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I n g r a m ’ s

September 2022

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