Ingram's November 2022

With a couple of notable exceptions, Missouri and Kansas saw Republican voters flex their muscles once again. Red Wave Missed D.C., But It Hit Hard Here

by Dennis Boone

T he 2022 races for Congress com- manded the vast majority of media coverage throughout the summer and fall, and the outcomes might have justified that interest in another highly competitive congres- sional cycle. With counting still taking place in California 10 days after the voting, it appeared that Republicans would assume control of the U.S. House by about as slender a margin Democratics had last year, flipping from 222-212 to 222-213 when the final open seat was filled in this round of voting. Across theCapitol building, Democrats did just enough to retain power in the Senate. The good news for business is that the nation will have a divided govern- ment in terms of political parties and

a measure of policy stability for the next two years. The bad news for the Biden administration is that his agenda is virtually assured of going on the shelf for the remainder of his term, with few prospects for passage in each chamber. America’s pundit and polling class, again—misread the tea leaves on this cycle. Projections for a Republican steamroller in the House never mat erialized. That may have more to do with the way congressional races are structured than it did with voter sentiment: Republicans ran up heavy margins in many rural districts on the way to a 5 million-vote majority nationwide, but they took their lumps, as usual, in most urban and many suburban districts. It’s a reverse of the dynamic that

had generated Democratic complaints about the Electoral College in 2000 and 2016, when Republican presidents emerged despite a national majority among Democratic voters. While that swing in the House leaves the GOP with tenuous control of the lower chamber, it is far short of the 25-to 40-seat flip anticipated by pollsters going into Nov. 8. And it was an even farther cry from the 64-seat flip in the 2010 elections that followed the great Obamacare/recovery-spending blow- back that gave rise to the short-lived Tea Party resistance movement. The Senate, meanwhile, remained a sterling example of America as a 50-50 Nation. With the chamber evenly split since 2020, Democrats hoped for full control after picking up the GOP seat in Pennsylvania, then

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November 2022

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