Hardwood Floors June/July 2024

By Santo Torcivia

• Consumer spending remains the engine of the U.S. economy (accounting for about two-thirds of the gross domestic product) and should grow at an inflation-adjusted rate of 2 percent or more through 2028. • Non-residential building construction will grow throughout the forecast period, especially for education, transport, and institutional building types, less so for health care. Conversely, office, religious, amusement and recreation, and retail building construction will decline slightly. FACTORS THREATENING THE U.S. ECONOMY INCLUDE: • High energy and food prices are sapping consumer spending power and reordering their priorities. In Q4/2023 alone, consumers added $40 billion in total consumer credit and the personal savings rate fell to the lowest rate in 15 years, 3.7 percent of disposable personal income.

• Housing starts remain above 1.35 million units annually and will continue to aid economic growth through 2028. Starts increasingly favor single-family units, which average 50 percent greater floor area over multi-family units. • Residential home improvements will grow slowly through the first half of 2024 and then accelerate in the second half of 2024, growing faster throughout the forecast period. • Real personal disposable income will grow at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2 percent or greater through 2028. • Residential mortgage rates, though moderately high at 6 percent currently, will fall slowly through the forecast period.