Hardwood Floors February/March 2024

By Santo Torcivia

SOME BRIGHT SPOTS IN THE U.S. ECONOMY: Employment is growing, albeit at a slowing pace, with a low unemployment rate of 3.8 percent and labor participation at 62.8 percent. • Consumer spending adjusted for inflation continues to grow at a diminishing rate (2.1 percent YTD on 9/30/23), and it is being fueled largely by consumer credit as inflation fueled prices take a bigger bite out of household income. Consumer credit outstanding is at record levels ($5.0 trillion at 9/30/23, an increase of 4 percent over the same period last year). With inflation pushing interest rates higher and total debt now at nearly 25 percent of disposable personal income, this situation cannot be sustained much longer. Consumer spending is the engine of the U.S. economy, representing two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). • Inflation is falling and should end the year at 4.2 percent, and 2024 should see consumer price inflation fall to 2.8 percent. • A stable U.S. dollar is helping ease the impact of inflation as imports become less costly due to a favorable exchange rate. Dollar stability is the result of previous Fed policies and the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency.

A stable U.S. dollar is helping ease the impact of inflation as imports become less costly due to a favorable exchange rate.

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