Disaster Recovery Journal Summer 2023

Misinformation is information that is spread, regardless of intent to mislead while disinformation is developed to be deliberately misleading or biased propaganda.

bit flat-footed. Information was slow to get out of China, countries fumbled in their response and many hoped it would just go away. Organizations who had old pan demic plans dusted them off and by mid March 2020, everyone seriously started to figure out how to respond. COVID-19 Pandemic: Five Individual Shifts Just as we explored the overall histori cal impacts caused by pandemics, what are we specficially seeing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic? Here are the top five individual shifts to date: 1. Major decline in trust of expertise (knowledge, education, experience). Suddenly everyone became a medical or disease expert, no experience or education required. This may complicate our work as the value of our knowledge, expertise, or experience may be challenged. 2. Major decline in trust of people . You fear something you can’t see, and you don’t know who might be sick or not and this led to a distrust of all. Of course, trust is essential in any working relationship, and as we know, especially in a crisis. 3. Inequalities exacerbated (race/ ethnicity, income, religion). The ethnic breakdown of who was dying early in the pandemic showed it was disproportionally affecting Black and brown communities. Interestingly enough, once vaccines become widely available, it changed to killing more white Americans. Low-income Americans of all races were more impacted than those with higher incomes. 4. An increase in political divide and division, increasingly using politics as a form of personal identification. In America, some political parties and leaders expressed beliefs that vaccines or masks were good or detrimental. This made work environments more complicated, especially during vaccine and masking mandates. 5. Tremendous rise in misinformation and disinformation via social media and our self-selected echo-chambers.

turns out this year at the World Economic Forum 2023 in Davos, the world was abuzz with the latest new word, “polycri sis.” The world was asking, “Are we on the brink of a polycrisis?” You are likely thinking, “What is a polycrisis?” This term was first coined by the French philosopher Edgar Morin, who introduced it in the 1990s. However, it got new life at Davos 2023 by economic historian and Davos attendee Adam Tooze, who started to speak and write about it. A polycrisis is when present and future risks interact with each other to form a “polycrisis.” It is a cluster of related global risks with compounding effects such that the over all impact exceeds the sum of each part. Today, the simultaneous and overlapping crises facing the world include a mount ing climate crisis, a war in Europe, an inflation shock, democratic dysfunction, a health crisis, banking instabilities, and much more. The World Economic Forum Global Risks Report (GRPS) 2023 sheds light onto the concerns and thoughts of many global leaders. There was a marked pes simism among the respondents looking 10 years out: n 20% believed the world was at progressive tipping points and persistent crises leading to catastrophic outcomes. n 34% expect consistent volitivity across economies and industries with multiple shocks accentuating divergent trajectories. The report describes four potential futures centered around food, water, and metals and mineral shortages, all of which could spark a humanitarian as well as an ecological crisis (from water wars and famines to continued overexploitation of ecological resources and a slowdown in climate mitigation and adaption). In the years to come, concurrent crises will embed structural changes to the economic and geopolitical landscape and accelerate the other risks we face. More than four in five GRPS respondents anticipate consis tent volatility over the next two years at a

COVID-19 Pandemic: Five Global Shifts The impacts around the globe at the country level have been even further complicated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war has further exacerbated all five of the issues noted below. 1. Financial hardships . Inflation, recession (in some countries), decrease in foreign aid. u This could affect money and staffing to manage our programs, as well as procurement of products and services to help us in managing the risk. 2. Global instability began with the pandemic and was further fueled by the Russian war in Ukraine. u This will impact our ability to safely manage crises in other country locations, further destabilizing countries and governments, and potentially impacting our businesses. 3. Food insecurity, threats of famine . u Food insecurity and famine means the movement of people seeking food. This can further disrupt and destabilize countries and regions where your organization may have offices or procure materials. 4. Supply chain disruptions (may cause some deglobalization). u We experienced major global supply chain disruptions starting in March 2020 and some continue to this day. 5. Crime. Increase in global criminals, gangs, nefarious parties. u Ransomware and the deployment

of other forms of malware are done very commonly by global gangs and nation states as a very effective form of revenue generation. International gangs have grown in power and influence, which can impact crops, manufacturing, labor, and more worldwide.

Polycrisis All of this got me interested, and I began wondering if anyone else was talk ing about these things besides me? Well, it

10 DISASTER RECOVERY JOURNAL | SUMMER 2023