Disaster Recovery Journal Fall 2025

The Recency Effect and Its Impact on Disaster Planning The recency effect isn’t often discussed in emergency management, but it plays a role, especially in states that don’t fre quently experience large-scale disasters. Since 2005, FEMA has declared 2,770 (as of June 22, 2025) disasters across the US, with states like California, Florida, and Texas facing high disaster risk due to wild fires, severe storms, and tropical systems, as identified in the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). What about states that don’t experi ence disasters frequently? Speaking as a Marylander, our state has experienced 15 declarations as a result of natural disasters (removed COVID and evacuation support for Hurricane Katrina). It has been since Tropical Storm Isaias in 2020 damage sus tained from a weather event has reached the level of a major disaster, and only in three counties. While we experience local ized impacts like tornado outbreaks in central Maryland and the National Capital Region, and tornadoes and flooding that affected Anne Arundel County, a disas ter declaration request was submitted for western Maryland, but a response from FEMA had not been received when this article was submitted. What does this mean for the systems responsible for planning, response, and recovery? Research shows we tend to under prepare for disasters when it is not fresh in our collective memory. Weber (2006), Kunreuther and Michel-Kerjan (2009) highlight that risk perception is often shaped by recent events, leading to reactive rather than proactive disaster planning. With tight budgets and a steady stream of day-to-day priorities, it’s easy to see why disaster planning takes a back seat, especially when a community hasn’t faced a major disaster in years. Conceptually, its importance is recognized. In practice, the key question often becomes: What level of resources can and should be set aside to ensure an effective recovery when the next disaster hits? Without the collaboration of legisla tors, budget managers, governmental

Ellicott City, Maryland 2018 by Sara Bender

Recency Effect’s Role in Disaster Planning and Preparedness By SARA BENDER T he writing is on the wall. Budget struggles at all levels of govern ment, and the likelihood fed eral support for disasters will be reduced or even go away com pletely. It brings to mind the recency effect; a mental shortcut where people tend to remember recent events or info In the context of emergency manage ment, it plays both a subtle and powerful role, explaining why disaster planning is stronger after a significant incident occurs and then loses momentum as our memory of the disaster fades. better than things they’ve not experienced for a long time (or ever).

24 DISASTER RECOVERY JOURNAL | FALL 2025