CBA Record Nov-Dec 2019

Figure 2: Cook County Judicial Candidates Spending $100,000 or More, 1980 - 2018

Conclusion None of this is to suggest that a well-funded candidate makes for an inferior judge. To the contrary, there is no connection at all between the ability to raise funds for or to self-fund an expensive campaign and the abilities required to succeed on the bench. But to whatever extent an irrelevant factor becomes more influential in populating our judiciary, it does so at the expense of other factors, some of which are certainly more relevant. Public opinion surveys invariably receive strongly negative responses to questions about judges engaging in political behav- ior. Ethical issues and conflict-of-interest issues that arise from judges receiving campaign contributions present a danger to the confidence that citizens must have in their judiciary. All of these issues make it imperative to carefully monitor and understand the role that campaign dollars play in our entire judicial system. Albert J. Klumpp is a research analyst whose 2005 PhD dissertation examined voting patterns in judicial retention elections. This is his sixth article for the CBA Record on the subject of Cook County judicial selection. He can be contacted at albertk999@yahoo.com.

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candidates are pursuing judicial vacancies today than in the past, both in total num- bers and in average numbers per vacancy. Figure 3 reports average numbers of candidates per vacancy, grouped by decade. It shows a surge in candidacies during the 1990s, a surge that occurred for two rea- sons: the creation of many new vacancies under the new subcircuit system; and a weakening of Democratic Party influence over countywide contests, which embold- ened many candidates to challenge party slates. In recent years, though, the numbers have declined, as Figure 3 indicates - -even with fewer vacancies up for election than in the 1990s. In absolute numbers, fewer than half as many candidates sought judgeships in the 2000s (466 total) and in the 2010s (491 total) as in the 1990s (1,000 total). Influencing the Voters In previous research that examined the impact of campaign spending on the results of Cook County judicial contests, I found overall that spending is not generally a ma- jor determinant of a candidate’s vote total. Given the relative lack of voter interest in bottom-of-the-ballot candidates and of- fices, this is no surprise. Spending is much more influential in subcircuit contests than in countywide contests — which is to be expected since the county is 15 times as large as each subcircuit -- but even in the subcircuits, relatively few examples exist of campaign spending on its own determining

the winner of a contest. However, this will change if the trends shown here continue. Gaining an electoral advantage through campaign spending requires not only a substantial amount of money, but substantially outspending opponents. As overall spending levels rise, and especially as the subset of big spend- ers grows disproportionately, a growing number of contests will be won by a can- didate who substantially outspends his or her opponents. And if the total number of candidates seeking judgeships continues to diminish, the task of outspending op- ponents will become easier.

Figure 3. Average Number of Candidates per Cook County Judicial Vacancy, 1980 - 2018

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CBA RECORD 31