Casino Player August 2022

PLAYING THE TABLES

Blackjack Shockers Long shots happen more than you think

L et’s say you walk up to a blackjack table, lay down $700, bet $100 per hand, and lose seven consecutive decisions. Is that un usual?What about losing eight decisions out of ten? How often does that happen? Let’s say you’re dealt two ruby-red kings.Nice hand,right?What are the chances the dealer will tie you if he’s showing a 10? You’ve been at the table for an hour and haven’t yet drawn a natural 21. Not once. Mean while, during the same hour,the dealer received six naturals. Is that typical, or is the game rigged? Let’s say you play perfect blackjack basic strat egy, and it lowers the casino’s edge to only 0.4%. Does that mean you have a nearly 50-50 chance of winning the next hand? Shock and Awe Your ability to play correctly and follow strategy depends in large part on your capacity to retain focus when unexpected things happen at the table. Anomalies are unnerving and distracting. Egregious strategic mistakes and catastrophic losses usually occur during the confused moments after a weird loss when a shocked player shakes his head and says,“Wait.What just happened?” And here is the deep irony: Most of the events that people classify as remarkable are actually pretty common. Shock is unjustified because most surprises shouldn’t be so surpris ing. Here are some examples…

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The probability of losing 8 out of 10 is even higher. It happens about 1 in 12 trials (8.5% of the time).Yup, losing happens sometimes. But win ning does,too.You have a 3.3% chance of winning 8 out of 10. You and the dealer have an exactly equal chance of drawing a natural.Typically it happens about three times in an hour, about once in every 21 hands.But sometimes you or the dealer will get lucky. About once every 12 hours (7.8% of the time),one of you will receive six or more naturals in an hour. On the other hand, the probability for zero naturals in one hour is 5%.That means once every 20 hours or so you’ll suffer through a bad stretch

You and the dealer have an exactly equal chance of drawing a natural. Typically it happens about three times in an hour, about once in every 21 hands. ”

Unusual is Actually Typical Seven consecutive losses seems pretty nasty,but it’s actually very com mon. In blackjack, it happens about 1.3% of the time, or about once in every 78 trials. It’s typical in sessions that last more than an hour. Contrast that with the probability of drawing aces for a split.The chances of that happening are only 1 in 221.Howmany times in your life have you seen AA? So don’t feel abused when the casino sucks down seven consecutive bets.

with no perfect combinations. After a natural, the next best hand is 20.You’ll draw it about 11% of the time, or about seven times per hour. Usually, it’s a consistent winner, even against a dealer’s 10 or ace. But it ties a lot, about 1 in 3 times, when the dealer shows a 10. So don’t be frustrated by those ties!

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