MT Magazine January/February 2022

THE WEAKEST LINK HOW WE GOT INTO A BROKEN SUPPLY CHAIN AND WHY THE FIX ISN’T GOING TO BE SIMPLE. by Gary S. Vasilash | 13

THE CONSTANCY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATIVE TECHNOLOGY by Doug Woods | 01 NEW IMTS INITIATIVES: THE ONSHORING PROJECT AND IMTS+ by Peter Eelman | 21

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JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2022 THE SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUE VOLUME 1 | ISSUE 1

INFLATION: A LOOK BACK FOR A LOOK UP by Chris Chidzik | 32

DRIVING MANUFACTURING CHANGE Learn how to keep pace with growing demand, make lifelong connections, And see what opportunities lie on the horizon. Plan on attending The MFG Meeting in Bonita Springs, Florida, in April 2022!

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JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2022

A VIEW FROM THE WOODS

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The Constancy of Change and Transformative Technology

and virtual reality capabilities that could make you believe the sky is green. Another way that we are in the midst of a transformation in the way we work is evidenced by the fact that while sourcing machinery and equipment from companies largely based in the Midwest has long been the case, there are now startups in places like San Francisco that are building manufacturing systems – admittedly software-centric – capable of producing products at volume. An additional paradox regarding change is that the pandemic – far from being a good thing – has led to a clear focus on the importance of strengthening both our domestic manufacturing capabilities and our supply chains – certainly something positive for producers and consumers alike. Long overlooked by many, it is now realized to be critical by most. What we are now seeing is a move on behalf of manufacturers to leverage what technology provides, such as advances in automation that allow the manufacture of products efficiently and effectively at even lower volumes, which is important to address shifting consumer demands. What’s more, we are seeing the development of manufacturing networks, not only within the walls of one’s own facility but in connecting to other firms with supplemental capabilities and capacities. And digital connectivity is reducing the amount of friction in going from CAD file to parts shipment. Navigating the massive, ongoing changes isn’t simple. But we can’t help but be encouraged to see that the field of manufacturing technology is rapidly evolving to help develop the tools and techniques that drive all of us forward. If you stay on top of it, change can be better than good.

One of the things that I ’ve learned in my career in manufacturing technology is that while there are certainly some fundamentals when it comes to cutting and forming and measuring and assembl ing and scheduling and all those things we’ve learned about performing business, there is one thing that is, paradoxically, the same: Change is a constant. In other words, while machining in the macro may be the same process it was 20 years ago, in any given operation, it may be entirely different. Everything from the chemistry of the insert to the capacity of the spindle drive to the control algorithms for the axes is different. And the differences are accelerating. So what we “know” could be what we “knew” because of the change in tech. For example, it very well may be that in some applications, like complex short-run part creation, the part isn’t machined at all: it is created through an additive manufacturing process. In that space even five years ago, it would likely be some sort of resin-based material used for part production, which is one of the reasons why it was referred to as “rapid prototyping” – because what was being made was likely not to be a final part but a model of one, and “rapid” was an optimistic adjective, as it was fast only if you took the entire process into account. Now a part can be produced with materials including titanium and nickel-based superalloys. The “rapid” is becoming real as additive methods, in some cases, go from weeks to days to hours to minutes. While to say that the digital transformation is driving change in all aspects of our lives is about as surprising as “water is wet” and “the sky is blue,” in the technology space, the level of sophistication being realized by companies developing digital tools allows the highest levels of computational fluid dynamics

Douglas K. Woods President AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology

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AMT provides the tools and resources to capitalize on opportunities. Navigate shifting market conditions with the latest data surveys. Reach your goals with insights from top economic, market, and political analysts and forecasters. Find the insights you need. Learn more about AMT membership at AMTonline.org

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Editorial Team Mary Cecile Neville Director, Content mcneville@AMTonline.org Kristin Bartschi Director, Marketing & Communications kbartschi@AMTonline.org Chris Downs Director, Audience Development cmdowns@AMTonline.org Kathy Webster

Executive Team Doug Woods President dwoods@AMTonline.org Travis Egan Chief Revenue Officer tegan@AMTonline.org Peter Eelman Chief Experience Officer peelman@AMTonline.org Pat McGibbon Chief Knowledge Officer pmcgibbon@AMTonline.org Becky Stahl

Technology Benjamin Moses Director, Technology bmoses@AMTonline.org Intelligence Ian Stringer VP, Data Strategy istringer@AMTonline.org Smartforce Greg Jones VP, Smartforce Development gjones@AMTonline.org Advocacy Amber Thomas VP, Advocacy athomas@AMTonline.org International Ed Christopher VP, Global Services echristopher@AMTonline.org

Managing Editor, Content kwebster@AMTonline.org Dan Hong Writer/Editor dhong@AMTonline.org Gail McGrew Writer gmcgrew@AMTonline.org Ashley Park Lead Designer apark@AMTonline.org Jacob McCloskey Graphic Designer jmccloskey@AMTonline.org

Chief Financial Officer bstahl@AMTonline.org Tim Shinbara

Chief Technology Officer tshinbara@AMTonline.org Membership & Sales Bill Herman Senior Director, Sales & Membership bherman@AMTonline.org

IMTS Peter R. Eelman

Chief Experience Officer peelman@AMTonline.org Michelle Edmonson Senior Director, Events & Content medmonson@AMTonline.org Mark Kennedy Director, Exhibitor Services mkennedy@AMTonline.org

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HELPING FILL THE SKILLS GAP Attract, Retain & Develop a Skilled Workforce

Attracting, retaining and developing your precision machining workforce is among the most critical challenges manufacturers are currently facing. In partnership with industry experts, NTMA developed NTMA-U, a fully online educational program that can help deliver an empowered workforce, providing you benefits that will positively impact your bottom line. NTMA-U provides both the related instruction for a machinist apprenticeship and specific incumbent worker training.

NTMA-U key features include:

• Available anytime, anywhere with Internet access • Narrated courses with practice problems and assessments • Content covers NIMS competencies, paired with resources • College credit-earning potential with articulation agreements • Federal Bureau of Apprenticeship Training approved

Visit www.ntma.org/programs/education for more information. For questions or to get started, contact Bill Padnos at bpadnos@ntma.org .

Employees are the fuel that powers the engine that is your manufacturing business. Let’s make sure that your tank is full.

MT MAGAZINE

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2022

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Table of Contents

07 Click

See what’s trending on AMTonline.com

09 Manufacturing Matters

Get details on the latest industry news

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2022 Upcoming Events Important manufacturing technology dates and events to bookmark

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The Weakest Link by Gary S. Vasilash

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The Big Picture See how consumer spending has shifted and grown from pre-pandemic levels

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New IMTS Initiatives: The Onshoring Project and IMTS+ by Peter Eelman

24 Off the Beaten Path, On the Grid by Michelle Edmonson 27 There Is No Substitute for Speed by David Burns 31

Patch Notes for the 7 Families of Additive Manufacturing by Stephen LaMarca

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Inflation: A Look Back for a Look Up? by Chris Chidzik

ON COVER DESIGN Jacob McCloskey | Graphic Designer

MT Magazine (USPS # XXX-XXX), January/February 2022, Issue 1, is published bi-monthly (February, April, June, August, October and December) by AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology, 7901 Jones Branch Drive, Suite 900, McLean VA 22102. Application to Mail at Periodicals Postage Prices is Pending at McLean, VA, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to MT Magazine, 7901 Jones Branch Drive, Suite 900, McLean VA 22102.

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Click MT Magazine is more than just paper pulp and ink. Explore our content on AMTOnline.org and engage with discussions on a wide array of topics affecting manufacturing technology now.

Strategies to Build Supply Chain Resiliency Manufacturers are reevaluating their supply chains and making decisions on what they now deem “critical” to their companies and the nation. This white paper series examines how we can address supply chain disruption holistically with a robust course of action that creates a sustainable, healthier industry. The goal of the series is threefold: explore how supply chain management and sourcing in manufacturing is changing; capture compiled, real-world experiences; and make practical and useful suggestions for the manufacturing technology industry. Learn more at AMTonline.org/resources

AM – All-In at IMTS 2022 The AM Pavilion at IMTS 2022 will encompass AM4U by Formnext. This multi-use zone represents the first presence of a new partnership by AMT, Gardner Business Media, Mesago Messe Frankfurt (organizers of Formnext, Europe’s largest AM show), and Messe Frankfurt North America. The partnership creates Formnext USA Chicago, which will launch April 8-10, 2025, and serve as the U.S. event dedicated to industrial AM. For more information, visit AMTonline.org/article/am-at-imts-2022

Tools That Strengthen U.S. Manufacturing Self-Su ciency Are you familiar with “Total Cost of Ownership” (TCO) and “Manufacturing Critical Path Time” (MCT)? These are the biggest tools companies can use when considering domestic versus offshore sourcing and the leading factors increasing the recognition of U.S. competitiveness. Join us in conversation with Cathy Ma, vice president of platform growth and engagement at Thomas, Harry Moser, founder and president, Reshoring Initiative, and Ryan Kelly, general manager, AMT San Francisco Tech Lab, to dig into recent survey data to better appreciate these concepts. Learn more at AMTonline.org/events

The Need for a New Purchasing Paradigm Over the last 100 years, almost all business strategies and processes have undergone fundamental changes. These changes have improved company financial results by increasing company competitiveness. It is a conundrum, then, that the purchasing function remains essentially unchanged since Henry Ford opened his Rouge River, Michigan, plant – also 100 years ago – to produce the Model T, launching a new industrial age. See more at AMTonline.org/article/the-need-for-a-new-purchasing-paradigm

A Birthplace of Modern Manufacturin g

Let’s Shape the Next Generation of Innovators Let’s Shape the Next Generation of Innovators Let’s Shape the r i I r The American Precision Museum combines the home of an original 19th century factory building with a world-class collection of historic machines .

Inspiring young people, their parents and educators about the many exciting career opportunities in manufacturing Inspiring young people, their parents and educators about the many exciting career pportunities in manufacturing Inspiring young people, their parents and educators about the many exciting career opportunities in manufacturing you eople, their parents, a ucators about he many exci i reer o portu ities in manufacturing In

Educating a diverse audience through multimedia, interactive exhibits, programming, and events at the Museum and online Educating a diverse audience through multimedia, i teractive exhibits, programm g, and events at the Museu and online Educating a diverse audience through multimedia, interactive exhibits, programming, and events at the Museum and online a i e audience through i , int ractive exhibits, p ing, and vents at the M se d online i

Preserving one of the nation’s largest Preserving one of the nation’s largest collectio s of machin tools and the original 1846 arm ry building where many came t life Preserving one of the nation’s largest collections of machine tools and the original 1846 armory building where many came to life one t e ti ’s l r t collections of c i l th ori i al 846 armory buil i e i collections of machine tools and the original 1846 armory building where many came to life

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Friends of American Precision Museum Join the Friends of American Precision Museum in support of our mission to inspire the next generation of innovators about exciting careers in manufacturing, by preserving America’s rich history of innovation and engaging themwith challenging programs that utilize modern machining technology. Your annual gift will... • Support programs that inspire and educate our youth, their parents and educators about exciting career opportunities in the advanced world of manufacturing Friends of American Precision Museum Join the Friends of American Precision Museum in support of our mission to inspire the next gen ration of innov tors about exciting careers in manufacturing, by pres rving America’s rich history of innovation and engaging the with challenging ograms that util ze modern machining techn logy. Your an ual gift ll... • Support programs that inspire and educate our youth, their parents and educators abou exciting career op ortuniti s in th advanced world of manufacturing • Support the preservation of APM’s world-class collection of historically significant machines, as well as the 1846 armory where the museum is housed Friends of American Precision Museum Join the Friends of American Precision Museum in support of our mission to inspire the next generation of innovators about exciting careers in manufacturing, by preserving America’s rich history of innovation and engaging themwith challenging programs that utilize modern machining technology. Your annual gift will... • Support programs that inspire and educate our youth, their parents and educators about exciting career opportunities in the advanced world of manufacturing • Support the preservation of APM’s world-class collection of historically significant machines, as well as the 1846 armory where the museum is housed About the A e c Precision Museum The American Precision Museum’s story is a tal of in ovating techniques, improving technologies, and pushing industry forward. It is an American story. When the Union government asked R bbins & Lawre ce for 10,000 rifles in a month, they found a way. In great factories and small s ops, innovators a d entrepreneurs figured out how to make complex objects in quantity by machine, rather than one at a time by hand, and the machine tool industry was born. The weapons of war an the peaceful produc s of everyday life becam plentiful. The work Robbins and Lawrence undertook at our site generations ago forged new future for the manufacturing industry. Repeatability and interchangeable parts, the basis of the American System and precision manufacturing, changed the world. The American Precision M seum tells the story of this histo y and challenges visitors to apply their own probl m s lving skills in the Learning Lab. As companies like yours seek new t lent, we can work together to build interest in a world-changing industry. • Support the preservation of APM’s world-class collection of historically significant machines, as well as the 1846 armory where the museum is housed • Support the addition of modern manufacturing equipment and interactive learning tools used to challenge young minds with a variety of programs offered at APM • Support the addition of modern manufacturing equipment and interactive learning tools used to challenge young minds with a variety of programs offered at APM • Support the addition of modern manufacturing equipment and interactive learning tools used to challenge young minds with a variety of programs offered at APM • Allow unlimited entrance to the American Precision Museum, with behind the scenes tours available by appointment • Allow unlimited entrance to the American Precision Museum, with behind the scenes tours available by appointment • Allow unlimited entrance to the American Precision Museum, with behind the scenes tours available by appointment • Add your name to the permanent record of those who support APM along with an exclusive gift that was machined on-site by APM interns • Add your name to the permanent record of those who support APM along with an exclusive gift that was machined on-site by APM interns Where the Past Shapes the Future of Manufacturing • Add your name to the permanent record of those who support APM along with an exclusive gift that was machined on-site by APM interns

Join Us! Your annual gift of $250 will help the museum inspire, educate, and preserve. Learn more at: www.americanprecision.org/friends Join Us! Your annual gift of $250 will help the museum inspire, educate, and preserve. Learn more at: www.americanprecision.org/friends Join Us! Your annual gift of $250 will help the museum inspire, educate, and preserve. Learn more at: www.americanprecision.org/friends

Visit Us Online Visit Us Online Visit Us Online

www.americanprecision.org www.americanprecision.org /americanprecisionmuseum www.americanprecision.org /americanprecisionmuseum /americanprecisionmuseum /americanprecisionmuseum /americanprecisionmuseum /americanprecisionmuseum

Visit the Museum May 1st ~ October 31st Daily 10:00am - 5:00pm Visit the Museum May 1st ~ October 31st Daily 10:00am - 5:00pm Visit the Museum May 1st ~ October 31st Daily 10:00am - 5:00pm 196 Main Street PO Box 679 Windsor, Vermont 05089 802.674.5781

Contact Us! 196 Main Street

Where the Past Shapes Where the Past Shapes the Future of Manufacturing Where the Past Shapes

Contact Us! Contact Us! 196 Main Street

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2022

MANUFACTURING MATTERS

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Manufacturing Matters Check in for the highlights, headlines, and hijinks that matter to manufacturing. These lean news items keep you updated on the latest developments.

Developments in Automation Continue to Accelerate Automation is catching on in a way only seen previously in science fiction. From drones inspecting the skin of an F-35 Lightning to fast food robot cells frying chicken wings, automation use cases are expanding exponentially. The brains behind the operations and end-of-arm-tooling (EAOT) will continue to drive acceptance. Machine learning and artificial intelligence, coupled with more powerful edge computing, will drive more complex operations. Additionally, with developments in EOAT such as standard interfaces, more dexterous grippers, and sprays nozzles, the industry will see a resurgence in complex, automated tasks. The conversation surrounding the technology is shifting from “Automation is taking jobs” to “Watch what this robot can do!” TECHNOLOGY

INTELLIGENCE

Supply Chain Issues Are Killing the Recovery Buzz Supply chain stories have led the news for weeks as freighters pile up off the coast of China or the United States. Inventories are skyrocketing as manufacturers order in excess to anticipate shortages. Walmart has begun to hire its own freighters. Job shops are requiring their customers supply materials. The United States is suffering a little more in this issue than other nations. AMT’s economic consultants, Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics and Mark Killion of Oxford Economics, expect supply chain pressures to ease in 2022. Alan cites inflection points in short-term commodity price indexes as a signal of easing supply chain pressures by the middle of 2022, whereas Oxford Economics’ latest flash survey reveals that only half of global manufacturers expect supply chain constraints to be fully dissipated by then. However, easing is a path to recovery and not the elimination of the issue, which both economists suggest could linger into 2023.

SMARTFORCE

The Smartforce Student Summit Returns to IMTS 2022 Planning has been underway for months, and registration for the Smartforce Student Summit at IMTS opens in February. We have already sent out a save-the-date notice to schools, and the response has been overwhelmingly favorable. On industry advisory council Zoommeetings with schools, teachers who we consider to be very good friends of IMTS report back to us that they and their students can’t wait to return to IMTS to see the latest in manufacturing technology on display. We have been consulting with our traditional Student Summit exhibit partners, and we are very excited about new additions to the Summit, which always focuses on the manufacturing technology classroom of the future, and we are looking forward to showing the next generation the education and career opportunities our industry has to offer.

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Reshoring Creates Opportunities for AMT Members Abroad Every industrialized country is in the process of reshoring and nearshoring their manufacturing base to minimize future dependence on foreign suppliers. This translates into billions of investment dollars in new factories, expansions, upgrades, and vertical integrations – creating vast opportunities for AMT members to sell (export) their manufacturing technology. Since April 2020, AMT has been publishing a weekly series titled “International News From the Field,” which is a curation of specific, actionable global sales opportunities from our international staff. Keep up on these prospects and review some 75 articles by clicking on “International” at AMTonline.org. INTERNATIONAL

ADVOCACY

Midterm Elections Will Dominate the Agenda Campaigning for the midterm elections will distract from the legislative agenda in 2022. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and one-third in the Senate will be on the ballot this November. At stake for the Biden administration are the razor-thin Democratic majorities in both chambers. Most election forecasters predict Republicans will win control of the House and Senate. AMT’s 2022 policy priorities include extending 100% bonus depreciation, which begins phasing out in 2023 until it expires in 2026. We are also working with government agencies and business coalitions to reduce the mounting compliance and cost burdens of new rules and regulations in areas including toxic chemicals, labor, trade, and ESG. Finally, we continue to support initiatives that increase technology and R&D investment in manufacturing technology, build a manufacturing Smartforce, ease supply chain disruptions, and expand global and domestic market opportunities for the industry.

June 7-9, 2022 Pittsburgh, PA

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smartmanufacturingexperience.com 888.457.0763

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2022

WHAT’S HAPPENING

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2022 Upcoming Events

Businesses are racing to fill sales positions in response to skyrocketing orders in 2021, and the Manufacturing Technology Sales Fundamentals Workshop is answering the call to get sales teams up to speed and ready to sell. This workshop is the perfect strategic onboarding tool and custom built for new hires and application engineers or service technicians migrating into sales. MT Sales Fundamentals Workshop February 22-23 | Hoffman Estates, Illinois SMARTFORCE

MFG 2022 April 27-30 | Bonita Springs, Florida MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing continues to grow at a rapid rate. Stay ahead of the curve at The MFG Meeting this April. The Manufacturing For Growth (MFG) Meeting is the ultimate gathering of manufacturing technology minds, bringing together a community of solutions and solvers. Learn how to keep pace with growing demand, make lifelong connections, and see what opportunities lie on the horizon.

IMTS 2022 September 12-17 | Chicago, Illinois IMTS

MTForecast 2022 October 12-14 | St. Louis, Missouri INTELLIGENCE

MTForecast brings the latest economic news and industry trends straight to you. Industry leaders, executives, and key decision-makers will connect and learn better business strategies through customer industry insights, economic forecasting, and deep dives into market data.

Experience “Digital Manufacturing. Implemented.” at IMTS 2022. Find new equipment, software, and products to move your business forward, and connect with industry experts and peers.

CMTSE Exams SMARTFORCE

The Certified Manufacturing Technology Sales Engineer (CMTSE) Program is the only nationally recognized program to measure and celebrate the skills, knowledge, and ability of sales engineers to perform effectively. Since 1993, more than a thousand individuals have taken the CMTSE exam and earned the CMTSE designation.

February 16, 2022 April 13, 2022 June 15, 2022 October 12, 2022 UPCOMING EXAM DATES

Greetings! I am NanO, your AMT host. Would you like to learn more about future AMT events? Please visit AMTonline.org/events.

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The Weakest Link How we got to a broken supply chain and why the fix isn’t going to be simple. BY GARY S. VASILASH TRANSPORTATION EDITOR, MTUNITED, A JOINT VENTURE BETWEEN AMT & GARDNER BUSINESS MEDIA While this might seem paradoxical, the current supply chain disruptions are the classic good news-bad news situation. First, the good. Austan Goolsbee, who chaired the Council of Economic Advisors during the Obama administration, recently told POLITICO, “Normally, demand for services is the majority of what we spend our money on.” This means things like eating out, taking

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Fig. 1 The Pier 300 channel at the Port of Los Angeles during less demanding days. Cargo ship capacity is measured in TEUs, or “twenty-foot equivalent units,” which is based on the length dimension of a cargo container (20 x 8 x 8 ft.). The largest cargo ships in the world can handle more than 23,000 TEUs – which explains why there can be problems in ports when things like COVID-19 hits. (Image: Port of Los Angeles)

vacations, and getting contractors in or landscapers out. The pandemic hit, and, as Goolsbee noted, “Demand for durable goods went up. Demand for cars went up. Demand for houses, way up.” In other words, people are buying durable goods at an unprecedented pace. That’s the good stuff – high demand for durable goods. Which brings us to the bad. Goolsbee said that “all the pandemic shortages coming from the supply chain” are “concentrated on physical goods and stuff coming through the ports.” Let’s take the auto industry, for example. According to Bill Rinna, director, vehicle forecasts, the Americas, at LMC Automotive: “Our current projection for North America lost production due to disruptions is 2.8 million units.” Clearly a massive loss for the industry – as well as all of the peripheral companies that support it. However, Rinna notes that “90% of that is due to the lack of chips.” The Opposite of “Trifecta” The chip shortage is arguably a “perfect storm” event,

combining these factors: 1. COVID. There have been serious shutdowns at semiconductor plants in China, Taiwan, and Malaysia. 2. Weather. Samsung, NXP, and Infineon all shut their chip fabs down in the Austin, Texas, area in February 2021 due to the winter storm. Samsung was down for a month. 3. Fire. At the Renesas Electronics plant northeast of Tokyo, a fire gutted the N3 building where it built 300-mm chips, primarily for automotive applications, on March 19, 2021. The company announced it was back to 100% of its pre-fire operation on June 24 – after some three months of being down. There is no quick fix for this. Like any complex manufactured product – and let’s face it: semiconductors are particularly complex – it takes time to produce. As a general rule of thumb, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association, it can take up to 26 weeks from order to delivery. While there are efforts to build new plants in the United States and elsewhere to increase capacity, the SIA notes that it takes 18 to 24 months to build a semiconductor factory (aka “fab”). The trade association reports that there are 26 fabs going into production this year – three in the United States –

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worse: “In 2021, we estimate the industry is roughly 80,000 drivers short of what it needs to optimally meet current freight demand.” Even if one has built a plant in Anywhere, USA, transport is an issue. Cybercrime. And if all of this isn’t enough to make a manufacturer think that it might be easier to do something else for a living, there is another factor that can wreak havoc on the supply chain: Cyberattacks. According to Black Kite, which provides security rating services for companies, nearly half of automotive suppliers are “highly susceptible” to a ransomware attack, and more than 17% of them are likely to incur an attack. Other Things. Like magnesium. The material is used for structural applications in vehicles (e.g., diecast cross-car beams) as well as for alloying aluminum. The vast majority of the material comes from China, and there is concern there may be a shortage. Chip capacity may go up. Magnesium availability may go down. I asked Jeff Schuster, president, Americas Operation and Global Vehicle Forecasting at LMC Automotive: What are the potential ramifications of a magnesium shortage if, on a scale of 1 to 10, the chip shortage is a 10?

and there are 26 more being built – four in the United States. The semiconductor industry is clearly making a big spend on increasing capacity. SIA estimates that the average capex rate of spend from 2021 to 2025 will be $156 billion, as compared with $97 billion annually from 2016 to 2021. It is worth noting that not only were more semiconductors sold in Q2 2021 than “any quarter in history,” but the auto industry set records in its purchase of semiconductors every month from September 2020 to July 2021. All that, and we are still mired in a shortage. But Wait, There’s More Ports. Whether it is semiconductors from Asia or components from Japan, there is the issue at the ports. The Port of Los Angeles – the United States’ biggest port – reported that it processed 26.4% more cargo in the first three quarters of 2021 than in the same period in 2020. Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka notes the port was handling 17 ships at anchor daily – a 70% increase over pre-pandemic volumes. Trucks. There is the situation leaving the ports: According to the American Trucking Associations, pre-pandemic, the United States was short 60,800 drivers. Now, they’ve found it’s gotten

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“I think it is quite important,” Schuster answers. “But I also don’t think it is anywhere near the issue of semiconductors.” He adds, “I would say it is a 2 or 3 at this point.” Not bad. But not good. And potentially quite bad as OEMs work to make their vehicles lighter with materials including aluminum. What’s a Manufacturer to Do? While there is an argument to be made to shorten supply chains, perhaps to within the country’s borders, it isn’t a guarantee of no supply chain disruptions. Kristin Dziczek is the senior vice president of research at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR). She pays particular attention to manufacturing operations, and her word for what’s going on right now pretty much nails it: “Wonky.” ... her word for what’s going on right now pretty much nails it: “Wonky.” “Right now,” she says, “Even if a manufacturer doesn’t make something without a chip in it, it is impacted.” Even seat foam is impacted by the supply chain situation, Dziczek says. While there is something to be said for reshoring, Dziczek points out there are still problems. She references the Great Freeze in Texas. She points out that in April 2020, a tornado ripped the roof off a BorgWarner transfer case plant in Seneca, South Carolina, which put the factory out of production for five weeks.

In May 2018 there was a massive fire at a magnesium diecasting plant of a supplier (Meridian, which has subsequently filed for Chapter 7) that shut down plants of the Detroit Three – including the F-150 lines of Ford. Even Tesla had a fire in March 2021 in its diecasting operation in Fremont, California, which disrupted production. And there are things like labor disputes, such as the recent John Deere strike that shut down operations on Oct. 14, 2021, and lasted for over a month. All of this leads Dziczek to observe: “Reshoring is beneficial but not a solution.” Many Eggs. Many Baskets. What could be beneficial, Dziczek suggests, is what she describes as “many eggs in many baskets.” That is while supplier consolidation has been the approach taken, especially as manufacturers have taken on some of the characteristics of the Toyota Production System, including just-in-time, there has been a tendency to “lean out” the supply chain. Or said another way: to put more work at fewer suppliers. There is conceivably a benefit to both the OEMs and the suppliers. Until there is a sneeze – everybody gets a cold. A bad cold. Dziczek notes there is a looming issue on the supply chain front that probably isn’t getting the attention it deserves: Many of the materials that go into electric vehicle batteries come from places like the Congo (cobalt) and Indonesia (nickel). “We don’t know if that supply chain has been secured.”

If you have any questions about this information, please contact Gary at vasilash@gmail.com.

Join Modern Machine Shop in exploring the challenges facing American manufacturing. Through exclusive commentary from world class economists and manufacturing leaders, we shine a spotlight on the past, present and future of being made in the U.S.A.

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THE BIG PICTURE

CONSUMER SPENDING SURPASSED PR Following the recession, consumer spending shifted strongly toward manufactured goods consumption but had the For more on inflation, see "Inflation: A L

CHANGE IN PERSONAL CONSUMPTION OF DURABLE

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GFC Index Change in personal consumption of durable goods in each month following the onset of the financial crisis (December 2007) COVID Index Change in personal consumption of durable goods in each month following the onset of the COVID recession (February 2020)

140

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100

90

80

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60

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9

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PERSONAL SAVINGS RATES HIT AN ALL ! TIME HIGH " PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL INCOME #

17.3%

33.8%

May 1975 (Past Record High)

April 2020

RE ! PANDEMIC LEVELS IN RECORD TIME s. Spending was encouraged by fiscal stimulus. These policies were designed to bolster power to be inflationary. Look Back for a Look Up" on page 32.

E GOODS BY MONTH AFTER THE ONSET OF RECESSION

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MORE UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS THAN PRE ! PANDEMIC WEEKLY AVERAGES 150,000

DEPOSITS IN COMMERCIAL BANKS INCREASED NEARLY $3 TRILLION between Jan 2020 and Jan 2021

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Off the Beaten Path, On the Grid The second season of “Manufacturing Explorers” launches on IMTS+ this spring. Preview all the places Travis and Max visited in their investigation of the future of renewable energy. BY MICHELLE EDMONSON SENIOR DIRECTOR, EVENTS & CONTENT

Appleton, Joplin, Riverton, Kansas City, Moss Landing. As Johnny Cash might have said, “They’ve been everywhere, man.” While f ilming season two of the hit reality show “Manufacturing Explorers” for IMTS+, Travis and Max visited these cities to explore the future of renewable energy. “Manufacturing Explorers” follows the father-son duo of Travis and Max Egan as they explore the technologies, innovations, and people that drive manufacturing. A manufacturing industry veteran, Travis is the chief revenue off icer at AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. Max is a mechanical engineering student at the University of Alabama with a passion for sustainability. In the first season of “Manufacturing Explorers,” Travis showed Max the biggest and best of manufacturing technology – from CNC machines to additive processes. For season two, we put Max in charge. As an intern at Burns & McDonnell, the largest design and construction firm in the power industry, Max gave his dad – and all his viewers – an inside look at the future of renewable energy. “Seeing the world of manufacturing through Max’s eyes was refreshing. His perspective is not burdened with preconceived notions,” said the elder Egan. “The future of renewable energy is bright. It is having a significant, positive impact on the energy

market – not to mention the game-changing impact on the health and outlook of our planet.” In the words of Max Egan, “Change is here … Participate … Be the Change!” Set to launch in spring 2022 on the new IMTS+ – a digital platformdedicated to all things manufacturing technology – the second season of “Manufacturing Explorers” will take viewers on a tour of all things energy. From Burns & McDonnell’s headquarters in Kansas City to a solar panel array in Joplin, Missouri, to a power station in Riverton, Kansas, Travis and Max discover what happens when you flip the switch. They also stop at an industrial construction and fabrication company in Appleton, Wisconsin, to see how the infrastructure for power generation is built. Their journey continues to the facility boasting the largest battery storage in the world, located in Moss Landing, California. Travis and Max may have traveled off the beaten path, but they never went off the grid. And they certainly learned a lot about the power grid. Tune in and see the places that are powering our nation and preparing for our sustainable energy future.

If you have any questions about this information, please contact Michelle at medmonson@AMTonline.org.

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There Is No Substitute for Speed Can pure velocity reshape the supply chain and move the productivity curve? Inspired by the whoosh of a racing Maserati on the autobahn, long time advanced manufacturer David Burns explores how our obsession with speed, combined with digital manufacturing, might be the golden ticket to reshore, strengthen supply chains, and accelerate productivity. BY DAVID BURNS SENIOR ADVISOR, AMT, PRINCIPAL & FOUNDER AT GLOBAL BUSINESS ADVISORY SERVICES LLC As we spend time reflecting on the events of 2020 and 2021, themes such as “We need to fix the supply chain” or “We need to reshore manufacturing” have emerged in manufacturing. As broad philosophical precepts, it is hard to disagree with those ideas. The thing is, how did we get here in the first place? We, as a country, decided to offshore

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and change, and speed to accommodate a variety of customer preferences. The idea of speed – of process velocity – is integral to any discussion of advanced manufacturing technology. Early in my career, I learned about velocity in an odd way. On one of my first visits to Germany (now 30-plus years ago), a colleague gave me the opportunity to drive his BMW on the autobahn in a speed-free zone. Imagine my delight at getting in the left lane and getting that car to its top speed of 236 kph. I was basking in this amazing opportunity when, suddenly, my colleague began yelling at me: “Pull to the right! Pull to the right!” As I moved to the right, a Maserati went by us at least 30 mph faster than I was driving. And a truth hit me like a bolt of lightning. Be the Maserati On the road, there is only one driver that does not need to look behind or alongside themselves when they drive. That one driver is the driver of the fastest car. Every other driver needs to be looking behind them with divided attention, worried about things in the rearview mirror. The fastest driver can focus all their energy on one thing: the road ahead. Can we apply this story to manufacturing? I believe that we can. When we consider the power that is inherent in the combination of emerging manufacturing technologies, we can create immense velocity in our supply chain. Once the process is mature, we can take the sequence of procuring parts, beginning

manufacturing and lengthen the supply chain for clear economic reasons. In simple terms, we created a long, unresponsive supply chain for economic gain. It is not sufficient to simply say that we should undo those economically based decisions. Is there a driver – a compulsion – that would cause us to reverse the supply chain decisions that we previously made? I believe that there is such a driver. Business Velocity If we can create sufficient business velocity – in this case, speed of manufacturing – then we will have a justifiable prerogative to reshape our supply chains. The emerging system of dynamic digital manufacturing technologies has the potential to do just that – to radically increase the velocity of manufacturing. As the world shifts to these remarkable, new, advanced manufacturing technologies, we need to rethink the paradigm of cost-effectivity in manufacturing. Clearly, we are emerging from a world where economies of scale were necessary to bolster productivity and reduce costs. Much of the transfer of manufacturing offshore from the United States can be explained by the ongoing need to reduce costs through economies of scale. But, the emerging set of dynamic digital manufacturing technologies realizes much less value from scale. Their value is derived from a tighter integration of manufacturing steps (through a consistent digital thread), from much greater design freedom (in both part design and material design), and from speed: speed to market, speed of product innovation

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with part conceptualization, through part materialization, and finally to part utilization, with unprecedented speed. And I am confident the speed – the velocity – of that sequence will begin to make the low-cost, long supply chain that we have today obsolete. And I am confident the speed – the velocity – of that sequence will begin to make the low-cost, long supply chain that we have today obsolete. It will take a commitment of investment to elevate the chain of dynamic digital manufacturing technologies to be like that Maserati. But when we get there, pure velocity will reshape the supply chain and move us one more step up the productivity curve. WDYT? What do you think? Do you agree? Disagree? Have you seen productivity increase after implementing digital manufacturing? Share your thoughts or stories with us at content@AMTonline. org.

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LAMARKABLES

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Patch Notes for the 7 Families of Additive Manufacturing

BY STEPHEN LAMARCA TECHNOLOGY ANALYST

Hi reader! I’m Stephen LaMarca. You might know me from the IMTS

documents – or the universe – expanding at

a n

accelerating rate since its conception in 2015. The 7 Families started as a pet project of Jason’s for the purpose of informing people, and it turned out so good that it was standardized by ISO/ASTM. Because it’s worthy of being an official standard, it must follow the rules of maintaining standardization. Or in other words: It needs to regularly be kept up to date. Bob Dylan wrote a song about the headache that is keeping up with the changing times; this is no different. Some New Developments? So, what has changed with the infographic from 2015 through the tail end of 2021? Referring to the original 2015 document, the differences are basically binder jetting, material jetting, and material extrusion, which have all considerably expanded. Also, material jetting and sheet lamination have swapped colors. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve read a press release from a company claiming to have a “brand new, never-before-seen” method of additive manufacturing, only to consult the Families and determine that the “newmethod” is, in fact, just something like binder jetting or sheet lamination but flipped upside down. Don’t @ me! However, AMT’s director of emerging technologies and investments, Dayton Horvath, tells me that there actually are some new AM technologies that may warrant a spot on the poster: “The seven AM process categories defined in ISO/ASTM 52900 remain relevant for categorizing the vast majority of technologies in the industry, but there will always be new approaches that don’t neatly fit the definition or spirit of the existing defined categories. The entrepreneurship and innovation driving such new process development is a highlight in the industry and should be celebrated as a sign of growth to come.” What’s Next? Obviously, I’ll be on the lookout for 7FoAM version 2015-22. In the meantime, I need to find a way to get Jason and Dayton on a call to discuss potentially more additive families! Like I said, until now, I thought everything “new” was really a previously documented, known, proven concept – just wrapped in fresh marketing baloney. We shall see. Oh, to be a fly on the wall in that convo. I’ll bring the popcorn! If you have any questions about this information, please contact Stephen at slamarca@AMTonline.org. Stream season one of “Road Trippin’ with Steve” at network.imts.com.

Network series “Road Trippin’ with Steve,” AMT’s “Tech Trends Podcast,” or the weekly Tech Report e-newsletter. If you don’t, stop what you’re doing right now, go to AMTonline.org/ resources, and subscribe to all the things. I’ll wait. Welcome back! This is my brand spankin’ new column on things in manufacturing technology that I think are cool enough to remark on – “LaMarkables,” if you will! I swear I didn’t come up with the name. I would have called it “Talkin’ Chip” or “Talkin’ MAD Chip,” but I don’t make the rules. I just get to have fun! Road Trippin’ to Hybrid Manufacturing Technologies I probably shouldn’t be telling you this, so keep it on the DL: A few weeks ago, I was in Texas, filming the second season of “Road Trippin’ with Steve.” I’m sure it will be released for your viewing pleasure soon enough, but until then, let me tell you about one of my favorite stops on our trip from Austin to Dallas: Hybrid Manufacturing Technologies, where we were hosted by the illustrious Jason Jones. He and his team greeted my camera crew and me with the finest locally made donuts and Texas sausage kolaches (or klobasnek). I’m sure there will be some footage of me gracefully scarfing them down, but let’s focus on Jason. Jason Jones is the CEO and co founder of Hybrid Manufacturing Technologies, a company that makes implementing additive manufacturing into your production line about as easy as a tool change on a CNC. He’s one of the smartest and most generous people in the industry. That’s not hyperbole! Seriously, even if it’s just you and him, he doesn’t make you feel like you’re the dumbest person in the room. (You are, though.) He did NOT pay me to say this – unless you count those donuts. The 7 Families of Additive Manufacturing I told you all that to tell you this: The greatest infographic in the manufacturing industry – nay, the greatest infographic, full stop, is the 7 Families of Additive Manufacturing graphic, which was, in fact, primarily authored by none other than your boy, Jason Jones! The 7 Families of Additive Manufacturing (or the 7 Families or 7FoAM – pronounced “seven foam”) has been in a constant state of evolution and, like the AM tech it